SARB Leading Indicator, Vehicle Sales, Transfer Duty & House Prices

The SARB leading indicator dropped marginally, possibly reflecting some moderation in the economic growth rate …

… yet, the annual percentage increase is very high because of comparative base effects (i.e. current levels are being compared to very low levels a year ago)

Vehicle sales have benefited from World Cup purchases and comparative base effects … the time series plans passed is forming a trough.

In percentage change terms, vehicle sales are performing well (+23% year-on-year), partly because of comparative base effects.  In the near future this leading indicator is expected to moderate as higher current levels will be compared to higher levels a year ago

The trend in the residential property market is still upward …

… yet, in real terms, the revival is not as robust as was the case in 1999 because mortgage finance is currently scarce

In percentage change terms the rise is conforming to pattern.  Note that early in the upswing phase of the business cycle the growth rate is robust, but as can be seen in the circled areas, after a while it tapers off.

Nominal house price increases are taking a breather

Real house prices are still below their peak levels in 2007

Even though the time series Transfer Duty Paid is more volatile than House Prices, they seem to reflect similar trends – currently positive, but both moving sideways